While many digital assets have enjoyed the recent market upswing, Pi Network (PI) has lagged, posting a decline of roughly 10% over the last seven days.
Trading at $0.5832, the PI token sits significantly below its peak performance, down approximately 80% from its $2.99 all-time high. However, a surge in trading activity offers a counterpoint; daily volume recently jumped nearly 35%, exceeding $128 million. This uptick suggests traders are refocusing on PI, potentially signaling a precursor to a more decisive price movement.
The primary technical obstacle for Pi Network price action is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently positioned near $0.82. The token remains firmly below this level, with shorter-term indicators like the 10-day and 20-day MAs also indicating persistent bearish pressure.
Technical signals present a mixed view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 38.7, nearing oversold territory but not yet confirming it. Conversely, indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) hint at nascent buying interest potentially building.
Analysis using Bollinger Bands shows PI trading near the lower band. This often suggests the asset is in a lower volatility range and potentially oversold. A rebound from this zone could target the middle band around $0.75 or higher.
A convincing break above the 50-day SMA, especially if backed by strong volume, could propel PI towards the $0.85–$0.90 resistance area. Surpassing the $1.00 psychological mark, particularly fueled by significant developments, might fundamentally alter market sentiment.
Conversely, failure to overcome key moving averages amid continued selling could see PI re-examine support near $0.55. A deeper decline might push the price toward its historical low around $0.45.
A significant headwind facing the PI token is potential supply inflation from token unlocks. April saw 21.4 million new tokens (approx. $12.3 million) enter circulation. Projections estimate around 131 million tokens could be released monthly over the coming year. This consistent supply increase could exert downward pressure on prices unless met with rising demand or mitigation strategies.
Addressing this concern could involve strategic token burns. The Pi Foundation holds a substantial reserve (over 70 billion PI, valued above $40 billion), parts of which could be burned to alleviate investor concerns and bolster the token’s value. Fee-burning mechanisms could also complement such efforts.
Furthermore, securing listings on prominent exchanges like Coinbase or Binance represents another potential catalyst. Growing community anticipation for such listings could, if realized, significantly enhance liquidity and demand, similar to patterns seen with other crypto tokens. For now, Pi Network’s immediate prospects hinge on its ability to reclaim the 50-day MA as support, which would serve as the first signal of returning strength.