Crypto ETFs: High Approval Odds Clash With SEC Delays – What’s Next?

Despite growing anticipation for new crypto ETFs, regulatory hurdles are casting shadows, even as analysts see strong approval potential. Industry watchers estimate favorable outcomes for several key exchange-traded fund applications, though mounting delays from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) push final decisions deeper into 2025.

Following the landmark approvals of spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier, optimism has shifted towards altcoin funds. Recent analysis suggests a high likelihood, between 75% and 90%, for the eventual greenlighting of various crypto-focused ETFs currently under review.

Leading the pack with a 90% estimated approval chance by 2025 are spot ETFs for Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and diversified crypto baskets/indexes, including potential conversions like Grayscale’s GBTC. The SEC’s perceived view of LTC and SOL as commodities, bolstered by their links to regulated futures markets, likely fuels this positive outlook. These applications have already seen their 19b-4 forms acknowledged, setting final SEC deadlines between July and October 2024.

Ripple (XRP) follows closely with an 85% approval probability. XRP’s classification remains a key factor, especially after the CFTC designated it a regulated asset for futures markets on April 21.

Dogecoin (DOGE) and Hedera (HBAR) are pegged at an 80% likelihood, while Avalanche (AVAX), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) hold a respectable 75% chance. Analyst Eric Balchunas noted on X, “Would love to hear directly from Atkins, but all have a good chance of happening.”

The optimism, however, is tempered by persistent SEC postponements across the digital asset ETF landscape. On April 29, the commission delayed decisions on Franklin Templeton’s spot Solana ETF (new deadline: Oct. 7) and its spot XRP ETF (new deadline: Nov. 5). Rulings for Grayscale’s spot Hedera ETF and Bitwise’s Dogecoin ETF were also pushed to October 8.

Furthermore, the SEC deferred action on the staking provisions within Fidelity’s spot Ethereum ETF application; understanding what is staking in crypto is crucial as regulators evaluate such features. A final deadline for this specific proposal remains unannounced.

These follow earlier delays on April 24 for Bitwise’s spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs, and Canary Capital’s Hedera ETF, now facing deadlines on June 10 and June 11. Investors looking to access these potential assets typically use the best crypto exchange platforms available to them, pending ETF availability.