Renewed concerns over potential U.S. tariffs are casting a shadow over financial markets, with some experts forecasting an economic downturn. Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and a former White House insider, suggests these trade policies could negatively impact the U.S. economy while potentially benefiting Bitcoin.
Speaking recently, Scaramucci addressed the growing debate around Bitcoin’s role during economic instability. He noted a significant, albeit recent, shift in the crypto asset’s behavior. For weeks, Bitcoin, which previously moved in tandem with tech stocks like the NASDAQ, has shown signs of decoupling.
This non-correlation, observed over the last three to four weeks, mirrors the performance of gold, suggesting Bitcoin might increasingly function as a hedge against market volatility rather than just a risk asset. Scaramucci attributes this trend partly to the substantial capital inflows into new spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating growing institutional adoption.
Despite Bitcoin’s potential resilience, Scaramucci warns that a U.S. recession triggered by tariffs would likely have global consequences. Citing lessons from past financial crises, he emphasized the interconnectedness of the world economy, stating that a U.S. downturn would inevitably pull other nations down.
However, an interesting divergence is appearing in capital markets. Scaramucci highlights that European indices like the FTSE and DAX have shown relative strength compared to U.S. markets since trade tensions escalated. This suggests long-term investors may perceive increased unpredictability in the U.S. economic landscape.
Factors such as Germany’s plans to finance military rearmament and the UK’s focus on strengthening defence could further bolster European industrial sectors and profitability. Scaramucci posits that controversial U.S. trade policies might inadvertently make European investments more attractive on the margin due to increased U.S. market capriciousness.
Ultimately, while Scaramucci believes broad economic pain is likely if tariffs lead to a recession, the landscape may create unique opportunities. Assets like Bitcoin could see increased interest, and international capital might favor relatively more stable or strategically positioned European markets.