Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has significantly increased its long-term Bitcoin price prediction, suggesting the digital asset could soar towards $2.4 million per coin by the end of this decade.
In a recently updated analysis, the investment management firm presented three outlooks for Bitcoin’s value by 2030. The conservative estimate places BTC at $300,000, while the baseline scenario projects a $710,000 valuation. The most optimistic case anticipates the price exceeding $1.5 million.
An even more ambitious forecast emerges when factoring in dormant or lost Bitcoin supply. Under this adjusted model, achieving a 60% compound annual growth rate in Bitcoin-based financial services could propel the price to $2.4 million.
ARK’s valuation methodology hinges on the cumulative capital expected to flow into Bitcoin from six primary areas by 2030. These include allocations from nation-state reserves, corporate balance sheets, its role as digital gold, institutional portfolio diversification, adoption within emerging economies, and the expansion of BTC-centric financial platforms.
Institutional investment stands out as the most significant potential driver in the bullish outlook, projected to account for over 43% of the target valuation. This scenario assumes Bitcoin secures 6.5% of the world’s $200 trillion investable asset market, excluding gold.
Growth in emerging markets represents another critical factor. ARK’s base case valuation of $710,000 is supported by assuming merely a 2.5% adoption rate within the estimated $68 trillion global monetary base. While government and corporate treasury contributions are modeled more conservatively, they could rise alongside broader acceptance.
The expansion of Bitcoin’s on-chain financial ecosystem, encompassing layer-2 solutions and tokenized representations of BTC, is considered the most variable component. Despite a 2024 market size of $35 billion, its projected annual growth rates range from 20% (bearish) to 60% (bullish), potentially adding substantial value if these high growth rates materialize.
ARK Invest remains a prominent advocate for Bitcoin within traditional finance circles, being one of the initial U.S. firms to introduce a spot Bitcoin ETF with partner 21Shares. While acknowledging Bitcoin’s reputation for price swings among doubters, ARK emphasizes its long-term potential and increasing global significance as justification for its highly bullish projections.