Prominent entrepreneur Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3, recently proposed a thought-provoking analysis suggesting that major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, XRP, and Solana might be significantly overvalued when viewed through the lens of Bitcoin’s fixed supply.
Mow’s central argument tackles the concept of “unit bias,” a cognitive tendency where investors perceive assets with lower per-unit prices as cheaper, regardless of market capitalization or total supply. He highlighted this by noting someone might balk at Bitcoin’s hypothetical $85,000 price while seeing XRP at $2 as affordable, potentially overlooking the vast difference in total supply.
To illustrate his point, Mow referenced Bitcoin’s hard cap of 21 million coins. He then recalculated the implied value of top altcoins by dividing their respective market capitalizations by this same 21 million figure, aiming to create a standardized comparison metric based on Bitcoin’s scarcity model.
His analysis, shared via social media, posited that buying one twenty-one millionth of the Bitcoin supply might cost ~$85,000 in his example scenario. He cautioned that investors often don’t grasp the true value they are acquiring with high-supply altcoins due to this unit bias, claiming it harms uninformed market participants.
Applying this methodology, Mow estimated that an equivalent “one twenty-one millionth” share of value in other networks would appear dramatically different: approximately $9,200 for Ethereum (based on a ~$193B market cap), $5,800 for XRP, and $3,400 for Solana. “Instead of buying that one twenty-one millionth of Ethereum, you could buy just 0.11 BTC,” Mow argued, questioning the relative value.
Bitcoin Dominance Projected to Rise
Concluding his analysis, Mow asserted, “No way these alts are worth that much,” predicting a significant increase in Bitcoin’s market dominance as investors potentially recognize this perceived value discrepancy. Currently, Bitcoin dominance sits around 63.71%, according to market data trackers.
[Bitcoin dominance chart – Source: Tradingview]
Market trends appear to support a growing Bitcoin influence. Data shows BTC dominance has climbed 14.48% over the past year, 9.15% in the last six months, 9.71% year-to-date, and 3.76% over the previous month, indicating sustained momentum.
It’s important to note the differing tokenomics. While Bitcoin maintains its fixed 21 million supply with issuance decreasing via halvings, Ethereum has adopted mechanisms like EIP-1559, potentially making it deflationary by burning transaction fees. XRP has a large pre-mined supply (100 billion tokens), while Solana operates on an inflationary model, albeit with decreasing inflation rates over time. Mow’s comparison focuses purely on relative market cap scaled to Bitcoin’s supply cap, highlighting a specific valuation perspective.